Probability and Uncertainty in Economic Modeling, Second Version
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Probability and Uncertainty in Economic Modeling
S ince the early days of probability theory, there has been a distinction between probabilities that are given, as in a game of chance, and probabilities that are not given, but reflect a subjective degree of belief; Hacking (1975) and Shafer (1978) offer historical surveys. In economics, Knight (1921) is typically credited with the distinction between situations of “risk” and of “uncertainty.”...
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Representation and modeling of economic uncertainty is addressed by different modeling methods, namely stochastic variables and probabilities, interval analysis, and fuzzy numbers, in particular triple estimates. Fo-cusing on discounted cash flow analysis numerical results are presented, comparisons are made between alter-native modeling methods, and characteristics of the methods are discussed.
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Since second-order probability distributions assign probabilities to probabilities there is uncertainty on two levels. Although different types of uncertainty have been distinguished before and corresponding measures suggested, the distinction made here between firstand second-order levels of uncertainty has not been considered before. In this paper previously existing measures are considered f...
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representation and modeling of economic uncertainty is addressed by different modeling methods, namely stochastic variables and probabilities, interval analysis, and fuzzy numbers, in particular triple estimates. fo-cusing on discounted cash flow analysis numerical results are presented, comparisons are made between alter-native modeling methods, and characteristics of the methods are discussed.
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: SSRN Electronic Journal
سال: 2008
ISSN: 1556-5068
DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1088122